Opinion | Trump’s Economic Claims Are Overblown

as mentioned in For one thing, quarterly numbers can be volatile, and the most recent figure includes an unusual number of special factors. That accounted for about 0.6 percent of the growth in the second quarter, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics, a research firm. growth rate is likely to ebb quickly, once tariffs are actually in effect and the tax cut gains are all realized. Goldman Sachs, for example, forecasts that the annualized growth rate will fall to 3.3 percent in the third quarter and then taper down to 1.5 percent by the end of 2019. Mr. Trump's tax cut delivered 84 percent of its benefits to business and to individuals with incomes above $75,000 a year.

Opinion | Clouds Darken Trump's Sunny Economic View

So is President Trump, who takes singular credit for a robust second-quarter rise in the gross domestic product of 4.1 percent, something that hasn't happened under any other president since … Barack Obama. While Mr. Trump praised himself effusively — he's good at that, isn't he? But there was a caveat: Mr. Dwyer said that "growth is likely peaking. Then there's the flattening yield curve, which the St. Louis Federal Reserve 's president, James Bullard, warns could invert late this year if current conditions persist. Recessions tend to follow an inverted yield curve like a stray cat looking for a meal.

Opinion | Clouds Darken Trump's Sunny Economic View

How Long Will Trump's Economic Boom Last?

referring to President Trump has taken to boasting about overseeing, as he said recently, "the best economy in the history of our country." But trade wars loom and the deficit continues to grow. John Cassidy joins Dorothy Wickenden to discuss the good news and bad news about the American economy, and how the Administration's policies may affect the 2018 midterms and the 2020 Presidential election.

collected by :Donald Luther

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